On 4 March 2026, the Monetary Policy Council cut the NBP reference rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%. The resolution on the level of interest rates entered into force on 5 March 2026. According to preliminary data from Statistics Poland (GUS), CPI inflation in January 2026 fell to 2.2% year on year from 2.4% in December 2025. According to GUS’s flash estimate, Poland’s GDP growth was 4.0% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025 versus 3.8% in the third quarter of 2025.
The post-meeting information said the annual GDP growth rate was supported by higher domestic demand, including consumption and investment, with a slightly negative contribution from net exports. In January 2026, retail sales increased year on year, while industrial output and construction and assembly output declined.
The MPC noted that the annual growth rate of wages in the enterprise sector in January was markedly lower than in the previous month. This was accompanied by a further decline in employment in the enterprise sector. The MPC said that further decisions will depend on incoming information on the outlook for inflation and economic activity.